2021 Concacaf Gold Cup final odds, picks, predictions: USMNT vs. Mexico best bets from proven soccer expert

The United States and Mexico will battle for Concacaf supremacy again Sunday when the teams square off in the 2021 Gold Cup final at Allegiant Stadium outside Las Vegas. Mexico beat the USMNT 1-0 in the 2019 Gold Cup final, but the Americans knocked off El Tri 3-2 in the title game at June’s Nations League competition. One of these teams has won the title in every event but one since the confederation’s top competition was renamed the Gold Cup in 1991. The USMNT has won six Gold Cups, while Mexico has won eight times and has 11 Concacaf titles overall. The USA beat Qatar 1-0 in Thursday’s semifinal, while Mexico edged Canada 2-1 to advance.

Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Mexico as the +125 favorite (risk $100 to win $125) on the 90-minute money line in its latest USMNT vs. Mexico odds, while the USA is the +220 underdog. The over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before making any Mexico vs. USMNT picks or Gold Cup 2021 predictions, you need to see what consummate soccer insider Martin Green has to say. 

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

Now, Green has taken a close look at the USMNT vs. Mexico matchup and revealed his Gold Cup 2021 picks. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the Gold Cup odds and betting trends for Mexico vs. USMNT:  

• USMNT vs. Mexico spread: Mexico -0.5 (+120)
• USMNT vs. Mexico over-under: 2.5 goals (under -160, over +130)
• USMNT vs. Mexico 90-minute money line: Mexico +125, USA +220, Draw +200
• USA: The Americans have outscored opponents 44-9 since the start of 2020 (13-1-1).
• Mexico: El Tri has a 32-10 goal advantage over its foes since the start of 2020 (12-4-2).

Why you should back the USMNT

The Americans come in with supreme confidence despite missing some key pieces. They have won eight straight games, while allowing just three goals, and have 13 consecutive wins on U.S. soil. One of those wins was the Nations League final in June, and while the USMNT has several players out on European club duty, the team has displayed its depth in this tournament. Daryl Dike has a shoulder injury, but Gyasi Zardes also is a standout up top. He scored in the 86th minute to push the American past Qatar, and each has scored twice in the USA’s five games.

Matthew Hoppe and Nicholas Gioachinni have been disruptive and could cause problems for a Mexican defense that struggled with the pace of Canada’s forwards. The Americans also have been playing stellar defense, keeping a clean sheet Thursday against the tournament’s top-scoring team. Qatar came in with 11 goals in its four games and it had 18 shots, but only two of those were on target. Goalkeeper Matt Turner’s confidence has been building, and young fullbacks James Sands, Miles Robinson, Sam Vines and Shaq Moore have turned away every chance.  

Why you should back Mexico

El Tri is 5-1 against the USA in Gold Cup finals since 1991 and has the swagger as the defending champion. The Mexicans also have a full No. 1 squad while the Americans are missing several players from the team that won the Nations League final, including all three goal-scorers. Mexico has not lost since that CNL setback, going 6-2-0 and not allowing a goal until Thursday’s semifinal. Its only other loss since the start of 2020 was 1-0 in a March friendly against Wales, the world’s 17th-ranked team. Mexico is ranked 11th, nine spots ahead of the USMNT.

Mexico held the ball for 60 percent of the match against Canada and has dominated possession throughout the Gold Cup 2021. Hector Herrera, Edson Alvarez and Junior dos Santos hold the ball in the middle and set up playmakers Orebelin Pineda and Jesus Corona. Pineda scored his third goal of the tournament against the Canucks to tie striker Rogelio Funes Mori for the team lead, and Corona scored 63 seconds into the June meeting. The Mexico-USA rivalry is always a testy affair, and El Tri’s veterans will try to rattle the young American side in this huge match.      

How to make Mexico vs. USMNT picks

Green has taken an in-depth look at the USMNT vs. Mexico match and has locked in three strong best bets, including two that return plus-money. He’s only sharing those picks at SportsLine.

So who wins USMNT vs. Mexico? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the USA vs. Mexico match, all from the soccer expert who has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.